Policy issues from South Africa and its neighbours. Reports every two weeks.

v19/12 11 June 04

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CONTENTS

Congo:

Katangese suspected in attempted coup

Kabila's party leader hit by diamond scam

International:

Bad day for Mbeki and friends at G8 summit

Zimbabwe:

SA again rules out sanctions

International:

SA 'helped Libyan nuclear programme'

Development and security link made in failed states

Region:

Museveni wants SADC security model for Comesa

Great Lakes summit

Region:

Nato seeks to bring Cape Verde into its orbit

Zimbabwe:

Grain imports continue despite Mugabe's claims

Malawi:

Opposition strikes deal with new government

SA politics:

Pact with ANC appears to herald end for NNP

AIDS chief resigns as health minister stays

Congo:

Katangese suspected in attempted coup

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] One and a half months after the failed coup attempt of a group in the Congolese military called the Army of Heaven (SouthScan v19/07), Kinshasa was again struck on Friday this week by artillery and gunfire shortly after midnight.

The coup bid was quickly put down, but together with the brief rebel take-over of Bukavu a week earlier it has increased fears for the stability of the transition....

'Keep calm'..

Bukavu events... >>>Full report


Congo:

Kabila's party leader hit by diamond scam

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] A major scandal is brewing that could badly the DR Congo's President Joseph Kabila. Added to the secessionist moves in Katanga and in Kivu and another failed coup in Kinshasa this week, it will also damage the international credibility of the transitional government he heads.

Earlier this month the Belgian judge Michel Claise issued an international arrest warrant against one of his closest allies, Jean-Charles Okoto, who is charged with embezzlement, money-laundering, kidnapping and attempted poisoning.... >>>Full report


International:

Bad day for Mbeki and friends at G8 summit

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] The invited leaders of key African states sat down to a lunch on Thursday with the leaders of the industrialized world at the G8 summit on Seal Island, in Georgia. Time was pressing, the meeting was brief, and key issues, such as Zimbabwe, were not discussed.

For South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki and his colleagues, spelling out on different occasions that they were not there as "mendicants", it may have been an uncomfortable meeting....

Being realistic...

WEF meeting...

Security threats... >>>Full report


Zimbabwe:

SA again rules out sanctions

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] Ahead of the G8 summit in the US, South Africa's Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has again ruled out any unilateral trade embargoes against Zimbabwe as a means of forcing change in that country.... >>>Full report


SA development:

Purge at arms maker

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] An anti-corruption drive has been set in motion at arms producer Denel, led by its recently appointed chief executive Victor Moche..... >>>Full report


International:

SA 'helped Libyan nuclear programme'

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] South Africa has been accused of aiding the now aborted Libyan nuclear weapons programme. An internal report from the International Atomic Energy Agency at the end of last month focused on the support and diplomats subsequently identified SA as one of the suppliers of training.

The IAEA report did not name the countries involved in supplying Libya, but it later indicated that countries of the former Soviet Union, South Africa, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and Malaysia were involved.... >>>Full report


International:

Development and security link made in failed states

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] One the eve of the Sea Island G8 summit meeting this week a report was launched in Washington pressing for a radically changed US foreign policy to make the connection between national security, failed states and development. It has significant Democrat backing on Capitol Hill and may become an input into a Democrat administration's reconfigured foreign policy.

The report, by the liberal Center for Global Development, stresses the nexus between development and terrorism that had been loudly denied by the conservative establishment immediately after the September 11 attacks. Now, with policy faltering over Iraq, this view may have grown more widely acceptable. But the task set by the report's backers is substantial, and their support beyond their natural lliberal allies is uncertain....

Cracks in system...

Dealing with local elites...

Recommendations... >>>Full report


Region:

Museveni wants SADC security model for Comesa

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] Uganda has sought help from the Community of East and Southern African States, Comesa, to help fight the rebel Lord's Resistance Army. This signals the activation of article three of the pact relating to peace and security.

Ugandan officials say the LRA insurgency has regional dimensions but that Uganda is also keen for cooperation amid concerns that Allied Democratic Front rebels have regrouped and established a logistical network within the region in preparation for launching insurgency in Uganda....

Great Lakes summit... >>>Full report


Region:

Nato seeks to bring Cape Verde into its orbit

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] Portugal and the US are lobbying the Cape Verde authorities intensively to obtain port and airport facilities for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's airforce and navy on the Island of Sal. The idea would be to transform it into a logistical platform for the protection of oil installations in the Gulf of Guinea.

The proposed Nato air and naval facilities would be based on the island of Sal, where there is a substantial and modern landing strip used and upgraded by South Africa during the apartheid sanctions years when SA Airways could not overfly Africa. The heightened strategic importance of West Africa was underlined by news this week of a planned deployment by the US of an aircraft carrier off the West African coast.... >>>Full report


Zimbabwe:

Grain imports continue despite Mugabe's claims

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] UN crop forecasts estimate Zimbabwe will produce only half its food needs this year, despite the government's insistence that the country will not need emergency aid.

But while the Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has said his country is growing enough food, he is still importing grain, according to reports from truckers and shippers....

Zambia's bumper crop...

One million tonne deficit... >>>Full report


Zimbabwe:

Officials side-stepped EU forex sanctions

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] According to the latest annual report of the EU Court of Auditors, a decision by the EU's council of foreign ministers on February 18, 2002 permitted Zimbabwe access to cheap foreign currency from the EU Development Fund (EDF).... >>>Full report


Malawi:

Opposition strikes deal with new government

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] The leader of Malawi's main opposition grouping last week made an about-turn, announcing that his party would drop a lawsuit challenging the outcome of the elections and join the new government.

Gwanda Chakuamba, leader of the seven-party Mgwirizano (Unity) Coalition, had pulled his Republican Party out of the coalition to join President Bingu wa Mutharika's government (SouthScan v19/11).... >>>Full report


SA politics:

Pact with ANC appears to herald end for NNP

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] The New National Party, which performed disastrously in the April election, and the African National Congress have signed a pact to strengthen ties. The two parties were in an electoral alliance and the NNP's leader has been made the minister for tourism.

The decision was agreed to by 56 out of 60 members at the NNP's federal council. The dissenting Free State branch of the NNP had proposed to disband the party, and analysts agree that this is the likely eventual outcome for the party....

Strengthened right wing... >>>Full report


SA politics:

AIDS chief resigns as health minister stays

SouthScan v19/12 11 June 04] There seems little doubt in the local HIV/AIDS industry that the chief director of the SA government's AIDS programme has quit because of the reinstitution of the current health minister in her post after the April election.

AIDS activists had hoped the widely unpopular Health Minister Mantombazana Tshabalala-Msimang would be sacked or moved sideways.... >>>Full report