Policy issues from South Africa and its neighbours. Reports every two weeks.

v20/13 1 July 05

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CONTENTS
[Page numbers are in PDF file]

Congo:
Brutal police response ensures demonstrations fail P.1

Region:
African paralysis dampens Blair’s G8 aspirations P.2

Congo: P.3
Business still not in the picture as reforms are planned P.3

Region:
Military threat looms from Hutu losers in elections P.4

License withdrawn for Tanzania’s ammunition factory P.5

Ugandan police use SA supplies to disperse protesters P.5

Zimbabwe:
AU and SA ride criticism of failures to act on Mugabe P.5

Zambia:
Constitutional draft welcomed, but timing remains an issue P.6

Opposition plans to impeach president P.7

SA politics:
Mbeki seeks to hold the ANC to its traditional course P.7


Congo:

Brutal police response ensures demonstrations fail

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] A harsh response by police in Kinshasa ensured that demonstrators organized by the main opposition parties outside the government failed to storm the parliament building in Kinshasa. Elsewhere in the country demonstrations planned for Thursday, the original date for the end of the transitional arrangements, were similarly put down or failed to materialize.

At the same time differences have widened within the opposition united front, making its challenge to the transitional members of parliament and government weaker. In this situation there is concern that the government, now less harried by the opposition, will allow popular frustrations again to mount. ...

Divisions over registration ...

Numbers killed ... >>>Full report

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Region:

African paralysis dampens Blair's G8 aspirations

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] Signs of paralysis on key security issues in Africa are dampening hopes for securing a breakthrough at the G8 summit in Scotland. Already British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said his task in persuading his G8 colleagues to double aid will be made more difficult by Zimbabwe's current mass clearances and the lack of response from his African neighbours.

But the issue runs beyond the current Zimbabwe crisis. South Africa says that the Hutu-led Interahamwe rebels in the eastern DR Congo will have to be forcibly disarmed before the October 30 elections there can take place. ...

SADC force ...

Disarmament in the DRC ...

Cote d'Ivoire concern ...

WFP warning ...>>>Full report

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Congo:

Business still not in the picture as reforms are planned

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] With the regional and international focus on security in the DR Congo, there has been little attention paid to the practical reform of the economy during the transition period beyond complaints about the siphoning off of aid by government.

The size of the problem was spelled out this week at a Brussels seminar when a leading DRC business figure said government economic reforms were bearing no fruit because they were being implemented without the participation of the private sector. ...

Expropriated ...

Banking systemOne of the best things the OECD governments could do would be to extend their credit risk guarantees to more projects in the DRC, he said....>>>Full report

 

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Region:

Military threat looms from Hutu losers in elections

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] The Hutu-led ex-rebel 'National Council for the Defence of the Democracy - Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD)' are expected to win the legislative elections this Monday, a month after the local elections on June 3. But the defeated former lead Hutu party Frodebu appears now to be preparing an undercover military challenge.

Final results for the local elections confirmed the CNND-FDD's clear victory with 57.3 percent of the votes cast, ahead of the Hutu-led Burundian Front for Democracy (Frodebu) which received only 23.3 percent, the Tutsi-led Union for National Progress (Uprona) which obtained 6.3 percent, and smaller parties such as Leonard Nyangoma's Hutu-led National Council for the Defence of the Democracy (4 percent), the Tutsi-led Movement of Resistance for the Rehabilition of the Citizen (2.1 percent) led by Col. Epitace Bayaganakandi, and the former president Jean-Baptiste Bagaza's Party for the National Recovery (Parena). ...

Harder line ...

Infiltration from DRC ...>>>Full report

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Region:

License withdrawn for Tanzania's ammunition factory

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] The Belgian tycoon George Forrest has failed to win a licence to sell a O11 million ammunition factory to Tanzania (SouthScan 20/05;06).

On Tuesday (June 23) the Belgian regional government of Wallonia withdrew the export licence given to his company, New Lachaussee, that it had approved last January. ...>>>Full report

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Region:

Ugandan police use SA supplies to disperse protesters

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] Police on Tuesday used tear gas and water cannons to disperse dozens of demonstrators in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, who had taken to the streets to protest against a plan to amend the constitution to remove presidential term limits ahead of elections in 2006.

South Africa is a major supplier of the police supplies including tear gas, and earlier this year sent Buffel armoured vehicles to be fitted with water cannons (SouthScan v20/08). ...>>>Full report

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Zimbabwe:

AU and SA ride criticism of failures to act on Mugabe

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] Pressure is mounting on South Africa and the African Union to take some action on the mass shack clearances in Zimbabwe. But at the preliminary foreign ministers meeting on Friday ahead of the AU summit in Libya the crisis there was not on the agenda.

President Robert Mugabe's "urban renewal campaign" has left more than 275,000 Zimbabweans homeless but the AU maintains the issue is a domestic one. ...

Government response ...

SA to meet MDC ...

Higher inflation expected ...>>>Full report

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Zambia:

Constitutional draft welcomed, but timing remains an issue

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] A new draft constitution was finally submitted on Wednesday (June 29) and civil society organisations, opposition parties and other interest groups immediately welcomed the recommendations - especially that the document would be people-driven. Zambia's constitutional review commission took two years to collect and compile submissions from around the country.

"The future of Zambia now looks promising as people are now party to the country's governance", Law Association of Zambia (LAZ) president William Mweemba said. Other civic bodies including the Southern Africa Centre for Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD) and trade unions have expressed similar sentiments. ...

Cross-overs restrictedRecommendations include -...The president, himself a lawyer, has on several occasions said that he wants to leave as a legacy a good constitution, but he is again aware that if he does this before next year's elections it would limit his chances of re-election because of his loss of public support. He is therefore holding to his 2008 roadmap....>>>Full report

 

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Zambia:

Opposition plans to impeach president

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] Apparently taking advantage of dwindling public confidence in the president, members of parliament loyal to former president Frederick Chiluba are seeking to impeach Levy Mwanawasa when parliament resumes sitting.  

The government has accused the diplomatic community of conspiring with some politicians to support the impeachment motion. The donor community has of late been critical of the Mwanawasa government's anti-corruption record. ...>>>Full report

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SA politics:

Mbeki seeks to hold the ANC to its traditional course

[(c) SouthScan v20/13 1 July 05] SA President Thabo Mbeki was trying hard this week to divert what many see as the inevitable transformation of the African National Congress from its old liberation movement roots to a new party based on the rising middle class.

Opening the key national general council of the ANC at the University of Pretoria on Thursday (June 30) he cited recently deceased leaders of the liberation struggle and their selflessness, reminded members of the oath they took on entering the organization, and warned against self-seeking and corruption. The four-day meeting aims to review ANC policies and tactics ahead of its next national conference in 2007. ...

Morality centre stage ...

 'Protest movement' ...

Changing class structure ...

Zuma chargedHani opposed Modise's involvement in negotiations with representatives of British Aerospace (BAE) and Barclays Bank. The negotiations concerned future arms contracts with BAE, to be financed by Barclays, the book will say....>>>Full report