Analysis and reporting on key policy issues from Southern and Central Africa
v21/19 22 September 06
CONTENTS
SA politics:
Turbulence ahead as Zuma lifts Left and puts Mbeki on the defensive
SA politics:
Cosatu steps back from split over leadership
SA politics:
Offsets fail to materialise for arms deals
Region:
SA wants more AU peacekeepers in Darfur
Congo:
Bemba on the back foot as rivals declare for Kabila
Congo:
Army prepares to deploy against Nkunda in Kivu
Zambia:
Fears about repeat of earlier election rigging
Zambia:
Differentiated policies add to region and tribe preferences
Namibia:
Caprivi secessionist party banned
Zimbabwe:
Pressures ease on Mugabe as loans flow in and demonstrations fail
Zimbabwe:
Internet link cut off over debt
Zimbabwe:
Indian firm pulls out of steel deal
Zimbabwe:
China quizzed on loans policy
Mozambique:
Uncertainty over giant Brazil coal mining deal
SA politics:
Turbulence ahead as Zuma lifts Left and puts Mbeki on the defensive
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] South Africa is moving into a period of increased political turbulence after a court's decision this week to drop the corruption case against former deputy president Jacob Zuma. The announcement will force SA's President Thabo Mbeki onto the defensive while the Left, gathered round the trade union federation Cosatu and the SA Communist Party will try to shift the balance of forces decisively inside the African National Congress and in the government.
This is the general view on the likely political fallout after this week's Cosatu (Congress of SA Trade Unions) congress, during which the announcement came that their favourite, Zuma would not for now have to face trial on corruption charges. But the consequences may be felt beyond SA's borders if the Mbeki government's engagement with African and international issues is diverted into the domestic scene. ...
More militancy ...
Local challenge ... >>> Full report
SA politics:
Cosatu steps back from split over leadership
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The trade union federation Cosatu, having shown its massive support for former deputy president Jacob Zuma, stepped back from a polarizing division in its ranks and re-elected its current top leadership.
In particular the reputedly pro-Mbeki Willie Madisha held onto his presidency, though by just 42 votes. He appealed for unity in the union federation on Thursday and added, "This congress has defied the predications of sceptics". The reported split between Madisha and his general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, who was re-elected unopposed, had been underlined by some of the speeches, songs and campaigning during the conference. ...
Strikes at 10-year highAt the same time membership in Cosatu's 21 affiliated unions has grown by 4 percent since 2003, reversing earlier losses....
SA politics:
Offsets fail to materialise for arms deals
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The arms deals are coming home to haunt the government not just because of the corruption associated with them, but because they were sold to the voters as a means to securing more industrial jobs in SA.
Yet the offsets have by and large failed to materialize. Nor have the fines associated with non-performance by the arms companies been activated. ...
Airbus dealProjects already identified included research into the development and use of synthetic fuels, natural fibres and light alloys....
Region:
SA wants more AU peacekeepers in Darfur
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] South Africa wants the African Union's (AU) peacekeeping force in Darfur to be strengthened, and its mandate expanded, Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad said on Thursday. And he believes the AU force should be re-helmeted as a UN force, despite Sudan's demand that the AU force stay in its present format.
Pahad urged the UN Security Council to see what compromises it could reach with the Sudanese government. "We have to seriously assess those sections of the resolution that they believe is compromising their sovereignty and territorial integrity," he said. ...
Congo:
Bemba on the back foot as rivals declare for Kabila
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The challenge from incumbent president Joseph Kabila is becoming each day more difficult for his main rival, Jean-Pierre Bemba. On Monday the former dictator Mobutu's son Nzanga, who ranked fourth in the contest with over 4 percent of the votes in the first round, announced he would back Kabila in the second round.
But the main blow against Bemba came on Thursday when the 'patriarch' Antoine Gizenga announced he was siding with Kabila. As a result, the majority of votes that went to Gizenga's PALU party, about 13.7 percent, will go to Kabila, extending his lead still further over Bemba. ...
Tensions in Equator ...
Bemba without mouthpiece ...
Congo:
Army prepares to deploy against Nkunda in Kivu
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] Intensified fighting is likely in Kivu after a potential ally of presidential contender Jean-Pierre Bemba, Gen. Laurent Nkunda threatened to forcibly prevent national army troops being deployed in his fiefdom around Masisi. Since July there have been several clashes in Nord Kivu between Nkunda's forces and army soldiers.
Nkunda's 'National Congress for the Defence of the People' (CNDP), which he calls a "political-military movement", is believed to be siding with Bemba against his primary opponent, Joseph Kabila. ...
Ituri flare-up ...
Zambia:
Fears about repeat of earlier election rigging
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] Thousands of ballot papers have gone missing amid fears that the rigging process by the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy has started.
The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) director, Danny Kalale said last week that ballot boxes containing thousands of ballot papers for six wards had gone missing and that efforts to trace them have proved futile. On Tuesday ECZ's public relations manager, Chris Akufuna denied that they had gone missing from the Commission's warehouse at Lusaka International Airport, but a check at the airport by SouthScan revealed that the ECZ had posted a notice there saying that some ballot papers were missing. ...
Reputation for riggingChinese target...
Sata's PF has railed against "poor paying" Chinese and Indian businesses in Zambia and has promised to slash the 35 percent to 37 percent tax rates on the 400,000 government workers. ...
Zambia:
Differentiated policies add to region and tribe preferences[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The support for Zambia's political parties is highly regionalized and ethnicised, but they are also laying out differentiated policies that are national in scope before the electorate for the September 28 poll.
Lead presidential contender Michael Sata is popular mainly in the capital, Lusaka, and the northern Luapula and Copperbelt provinces. But his is a one-man show - since its inception in 2001 Sata's PF party has held no party conventions or leadership elections. ...
Namibia:
Caprivi secessionist party banned
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The government has effectively banned a political party seeking self-rule for the Caprivi Strip.
"No UDP [United Democratic Party] meetings will be allowed in the Republic of Namibia from 1 September. Those individuals who are publicly advocating the secession of the Caprivi Region from the rest of Namibia, in furtherance of UDP objectives, will be dealt with according to our laws," Deputy Information Minister Raphael Dinyando announced at a media briefing last week. ...
Zimbabwe:
Pressures ease on Mugabe as loans flow in and demonstrations fail
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] Despite its continuing economic crisis and harsh repression at home signs are mounting that Zimbabwe is being brought in from the cold.
Last week the government announced it had secured desperately needed loans of close to half a billion US dollars to help boost agricultural production. Nearly half the US$490 million was provided by China in the form of a US$200m agricultural support deal, the state-controlled Herald newspaper said. ...
Keeping the lid on ...
More farmers sought ...
Zimbabwe:
Internet link cut off over debt
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] Zimbabwe's international satellite link has been cut off after the national telephone company failed to pay a US$710,000 debt.
The managing director of Tel-One, the country's sole fixed line phone company, told the Herald newspaper that the company had been disconnected from the key Intelsat link. Wellington Makamure was quoted as saying Tel-One had applied to the country's central bank for critically scarce hard currency to pay the fee. ...
Zimbabwe:
Indian firm pulls out of steel deal
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] A US$400m deal with an Indian firm to rehabilitate Zimbabwe's state-owned iron and steel works has collapsed.
The deal with India's Global Steel Holdings (GHSL) fell through just six months after it was signed, said Industry and International Trade Minister Obert Mpofu. He blamed the government's push to maintain control by suggesting the state ought to manage Ziscosteel. ...
Zimbabwe:
China quizzed on loans policy
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The US and its major allies are warning China not to overload countries in Africa and elsewhere with high-priced loans.
Top economic officials from the G7 countries made the warning at a meeting last week in Singapore where China was criticised for promoting exports to poor countries by providing expensive trade financing. ...
Mozambique:
Uncertainty over giant Brazil coal mining deal
[© SouthScan v21/19 22 Sept 06] The world's top iron ore producer, the Brazilian Companhia do Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), was yet to confirm a $1bn investment to mine coal in Mozambique, despite winning the tender two years ago. It should be nearing completion on an economic feasibility study and CVRD says it has not made a final decision and will make its final decision by December.
CVRD's bid was $122.8m more than the two rival bidders it kept out, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. At the time CVRD stressed that this investment would be the largest ever outside Brazil. The deal was a partnership with US coal producer American Metals and Coal International, which provided 5 percent of the capital.SA's President Thabo Mbeki has warned that a number of agreements signed between the three countries in the IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) grouping have not come into effect. The way to ensure them would be to engage with business leaders, he said in Brasilia last week at the IBSA summit....