SouthScan - African analysis

Bi-weekly reports

Political and security-related issues

Vol. 23/12 20 June 08

Angola:

Confidence grows that election will not follow Zimbabwe and Kenya models P.1

Angola:

Focus on SA's xenophobia excludes Congolese expulsions P.2

Angola:

Dos Santos seeks to broker deal in Guinea Bissau P.3

Zimbabwe:

African mood hardens against Mugabe P.3

Zimbabwe:

Figures add up to give Mugabe control again P.4

Region:

SA and Zambia brace for a Zimbabwean exodus P.5

Swaziland:

Parliament closes for next poll on regions list P.5

Region:

Governments seek to fill embarrassing intelligence gaps P.5

Congo:

ICC suspension deals new blow to credibility P.6

Congo:

Kinshasa denies MONUC Bas-Congo charges P.7

SA politics:

Old military intelligence front companies kept in operation, court reveals P.7

SA economy:

Agreement on nuclear policy includes regional enrichment P.7

International:

Key accused in nuclear trial is off the hook for SA bomb programme P.8

Namibia:

World's largest uranium mine gets go-ahead P.8

Vol. 23/11 6 June 08

ZIMBABWE:

Mugabe ups the ante amid uncertainty over run-off election P.1

ZIMBABWE:

SA investors gear up to go in when Mugabe leaves P.3

MOZAMBIQUE:

36,000 Mozambicans fled xenophobic attacks P.4

ANGOLA:

Thousands of Congolese expelled ahead of elections P.5

MOZAMBIQUE:

Inquiry finds $8m stolen from social security P.5

REGION:

Role of ICC grows, but also concern about political motives P.5

REGION:

Bemba arrest causes travel rethink among Uganda's top brass P.6

CONGO:

Hundreds protest at arrest of Bemba P.7

CONGO:

Kinshasa says its army will oust Kony P.7

CONGO:

Belgian missions in east to be closed P.7

SA POLITICS:

Constitutional crisis as judge is accused over Zuma case P.7

SA DEVELOPMENT:

New SANDF force design to be unveiled P.8

Vol. 23/10 23 May 08

SA development:

Township violence was foreseen, but not by political classes P.1

SA development:

SAs bid for continental leadership is damaged P.2

SA development:

Migrancy patterns remain P.2

SA economy:

Pogroms hit tourism, mining revenues P.2

SA development:

Wealth inequality is set to remain P.3

SA development:

Military engagement in townships raises questions for army P.4

SA development:

SANDF agrees HIV discrimination is unconstitutional P.4

Congo:

Diplomatic relations with Belgium plummet P.5

Congo:

Bemba's arrest opens battle for leadership of the opposition P.6

International:

Chinese hackers attack websites focused on Central Africa P.6

Region:

SA to boost Lake Albert patrols as Uganda registers oil find P.6

Angola:

Sarkozy's visit heralds new honeymoon with France P.7

Angola:

Unita warns of possible Zimbabwe scenario for election P.8

Angola:

Nigerian oil production is overtaken P.8

Zimbabwe:

Concern mounts about possible military takeover P.8

Vol. 23/09 9 May 08

Zimbabwe:

Conviction grows that endgame for Mugabe is getting near P.1

Zimbabwe:

Botswana cuts cross-border fuel trade P.3

Swaziland:

Opposition stays barred for election P.3

Region:

Equatorial Guinea leader gets 100 percent vote P.3

Zimbabwe:

Chinese ship puts spotlight on SA’s arms policy P.4

Congo:

ICC faces Nkunda and government with dangerous dilemma P.4

Region:

Diplomacy takes back seat for new Congo-Uganda border dispute P.5

Region:

Burundi’s rebels ready to negotiate but legal confusion remains P.6

International:

SA on the defensive in support for Polisario at UN P.7

SA politics:

Rearguard action by Mbeki as Scorpions face disbandment P.7

Vol. 23/08 25 Apr 08

Zimbabwe:

As SADC credibility fades key to crisis remains with ANC P.1

Zimbabwe:

Civil society weighs in on crisis P.3

Zimbabwe:

Disinformation clouds post-election issues P.3

Zimbabwe:

Nordics ready to boost aid at short notice P.3

SA development:

Illegal workers have equal rights says court P.3

Angola:

Dispute grows over voters lists delay P.4

International:

Angola now supplies most of China's oil P.4

Region:

SA and Congo-Brazzaville sign military deal P.4

Congo:

Illegal mining continues to finance Kivu militias P.4

Congo:

Relations with Belgium chill over corruption and Chinese contracts P.5

Region:

UN threatens sanctions as war resumes in Burundi P.6

SA politics:

Motlanthes elevation signals weakening in Mbekis influence P.7

SA development:

Protests mount as service failure brings disease P.8

Vol. 23/07 11 Apr 08

Zimbabwe:

Mugabe proposes business as usual as SADC frets over deal

International:

Malaysian refuge offered for Mugabe

Zimbabwe:

Aid package fails to entice regional leaders to act

SA development:

As Zimbabweans flee attacks in SA increase

Angola:

Gearing for election government closes human rights office

Congo:

Breakthrough in finance for Inga dam

Region:

Major SA clans edge in on Great Lakes oil

Namibia:

Veterans return in Pohambo's first shake-up

Swaziland:

Pudemo deputy leader killed in SA

International:

Diamonds rivalry spoils India's summit plea for cooperation

International:

India-Africa summit aims at restoring balance with China

Vol. 23/06 28 Mar 08

Angola:

Zuma signals historic shift in SA policy to Luanda government P.1

Congo:

Tough negotiations with companies loom on mining contracts P.3

Congo:

Kabila seeks to propitiate BaKongo but bans sect P.4

Region:

Concern in Uganda as SA troops prepare to secure peace deal with rebels P.5

Botswana:

New president unlikely to open up democratic space P.6

International:

SA fatality in Iraq reignites private security recruiting controversy P.7

Swaziland:

Army deployed to boost police ahead of more strikes P.7

Region:

AU has a success in the Comoros, France faces demonstrations P.8

Vol. 23/05 14 Mar 08

ZIMBABWE:

Mugabe targets Makoni as chief rival over Tsvangirai P.1

ZIMBABWE:

Security chiefs warn against support for Mugabe's rivals P.2

ZIMBABWE:

Civil society sees little future for Makoni P.2

ZIMBABWE:

Kenyan model for dealing with vote-rigging is pressed P.3

ZAMBIA:

Tighter controls after riot at Chinese smelter P.3

BOTSWANA:

China begins major dam construction P.4

CONGO:

Bas-Congo violence presents different kind of threat P.4

CONGO:

Mini-state functions grow in rebel territory in the east P.5

REGION:

Central Africa leaders in Chad summit P.6

REGION:

Mbeki seeks to avoid Comoros military action P.6

REGION:

E. Guinea plot man claims SA gave go-ahead P.6

REGION:

Military chiefs meet to plan East Africa brigade P.6

SA POLITICS:

Zuma sets about squaring the circle after Polokwane P.7

SA POLITICS:

SACP leader warns of 'counter-revolution' from Scorpions P.8

Vol. 23/04 29 Feb 08

Region:

Consternation grows as SA warns neighbours on EU deals P.1

International:

Sarkozy announces energy, business, aid, security deals P.3

Region:

Comoros braces for invasion of Anjouan P.4

Congo:

Skirmishes continue between Nkunda and Mai-Mai fighters P.4

Congo:

Kabila makes judicial coup P.4

Region:

Energy solutions exclude Ingas grand scheme P.5

Zimbabwe:

Dabengwa comes in from the cold, lifts Makonis campaign P.6

SA politics:

Zuma fails in last-ditch bid to avoid his day in court P.y

SA politics:

Dismissal of report delivers fresh blow to Scorpions P.7

SA politics:

ANC front company audit seen as targeting Mbeki P.8

Vol. 23/03 15 FEB 08

Region:

South African armoured car exports boost Chad's regime P.1

SA politics:

Peacekeeping policy to be rewritten, funding boost sought P.2

International:

German company to take majority stake in Denel P.2

International:

Russian refusal to launch SA satellite raises military issues P.3

Region:

SA offers Algeria nuclear energy help P.4

Angola:

Macro-economic success fails to guarantee MPLA a clear run P.4

Angola:

As in SA scandal, German shipbuilders suspected of bribery P.5

Angola:

Nigerians extradited over arms deal P.5

Congo:

Confusion swirls around mining contracts review P.5

Region:

Ramaphosa's short-lived Kenya engagement chills diplomatic air P.6

Region:

Crisis on two fronts leads to Ugandan security switch P.7

Zimbabwe:

Makoni waits for supporters to emerge from Zanu-PFs shadows P.8

Mozambique:

Demonstrators force government retreat on fuel prices P.8

Vol. 23/02 1 FEB 08

CONTENTS

SA economy:

Power outages add to perfect storm of crises for the region P.1

SA politics:

Arms contracts chosen over power infrastructure P.2

Namibia:

Uranium gets reprieve from mining cuts P.3

Zimbabwe:

Blackouts increase as neighbours cut supplies P.3

Botswana:

Power station development focuses on coalfields P.3

Congo:

Cautious welcome for Kivu peace deal despite violations P.3

Congo:

Bonds with Francophonie are renewed P.4

Region:

Deal with DRC ensures Ugandan military business interests P.4

Zimbabwe:

Mugabe announces poll date, disregards opposition and Mbeki P.5

Zimbabwe:

Court orders white farmer off land P.5

Zambia:

Minerals tax will give big boost to revenues P.5

Zambia:

Ambassador oversteps a mark in boosting United States of Africa P.6

Region:

Private security path to Comoros impasse is blocked P.6

Region:

AfDB wipes out US$24m in Comoros debt arrears P.7

SA politics:

Ramaphosas Kenya role resonates in domestic politics P.7

International:

SA to receive UN anti-terrorism inspectors P.8

International:

Pelindaba break-in was no threat says IAEA P.8

Vol. 23/01 18 JAN 08

CONTENTS

[Page numbers as in PDF file]

SA politics:

Tense period looms as ruling party and government face off against each

other P.1

SA economy:

Jobs will be focus of reformed macro-economic policy P.3

SA politics:

Security apparatus gripped by vying interests P.3

Region:

Kenya crisis mars hopes for bloc but boosts SA influence P.4

Region:

Relief in Kampala at Mbeki's defeat P.5

Congo:

Contradictory demands at stormy peace conference P.5

Congo:

Kabila strengthens his grip on parastatals P.6

Zimbabwe:

Mbeki talks up 'breakthrough' to free and fair election P.7

Zimbabwe:

Cahora Bassa power cut till bill paid P.7

Zambia:

Uncertain outcome for constitutional conference P.7

Region:

SA presses for more support in Darfur P.8

Malawi:

Diplomatic link to Taiwan is cut P.8

International:

SA and China boost diplomatic relations P.8